Can These Teams and Players Keep Up Their Current Pace for 162 Games?
Many players and teams are on pace to have career years and go from last place in 2022 to first place this season, but can they finish the season this strong?
Through the first month of baseball in 2023, many players have gotten on scorching hot starts like Max Muncy and Matt Chapman while others like Manny Machado and Cedric Mullins haven’t lived up to their expectations for the new season. Each season holds different surprises whether it’s rookies lighting the world on fire or former All-Stars underperforming. The Pirates have gone from being the second-worst team in the National League to the second best team in all of baseball while the Cardinals have gone from running away with the NL Central last season to being in last place in their division so far. The question is though, which teams and players will keep up their current pace?
Juan Soto’s Early Struggles
Soto hasn’t been the same electric player that we saw him play as during his first five seasons in the majors. He placed top 10 in MVP voting from 2019-2021 and was the runner up for the award in 2021 behind Bryce Harper. He broke into the MLB at the age of 19(?!) and produced at the top of the Nationals lineup from 2018 until he was traded to the Padres at the trade deadline in 2022. He’s seemed off ever since he joined the Padres though, only batting .236 with them last season and to begin 2023 he’s dealing with a .227/.397/.427 slash line. He’s maintained his great eye and discipline at the plate, even when he’s not hitting well which is the main reason for the high OBP. How long will this last though, and is it time to hit the panic button?
My Prediction: Soto will be back to his old self by the middle of May and will finish the season with a .900+ OPS, proving all of the doubters wrong.
Jacob deGrom is Injured…Again
When the Rangers signed deGrom this following offseason they knew that they were getting a very injury prone starting pitcher, but one that is the best pitcher in all of baseball when he’s healthy. In 2018 and 2019 deGrom won the NL Cy Young Award in back to back seasons posting a 1.70 ERA in ‘18 and a 2.43 ERA the year after. His 100+ MPH fastball and devastating slider leaves hitters baffled every time his foot hits the rubber. However, with all of the success comes the injuries that has sidelined deGrom for half of the season in both 2021 and 2022. He was on a roll in the first half of the 2021 season with a 1.08 ERA before the All Star break, but ended up being out for 3+ months with elbow inflammation. Then during the Spring Training of 2022, he had a stress reaction on his right scapula keeping him from pitching for the Mets until early August of that season. He hit the free agent market after his 2022 campaign and signed a $185 million contract that will span over five years with the Texas Rangers who were desperately in need of starting pitching. He’s opened the 2023 season to the same tune, exiting two of his last three starts injured. Then, he was placed on the IL with elbow inflammation yet again. His injury woes seem to never leave, but is there anything that the Rangers can do to prevent more injuries?
My Prediction: deGrom will make 18 starts and have a 2.70 ERA during the regular season.
The Pirates Aren’t Really This Good, Or Are They?
The Pirates have gotten off to a torrid start for the 2023 campaign showing a mix of veteran presence delivering and young talent finally blooming. The former Pirates MVP, Andrew McCutchen, has finally come home and is producing with six home runs, four stolen bases, and an .804 OPS. Then there’s MVP candidate Bryan Reynolds who was recently extended to an eight year, $106 million contract to make sure that he’s a part of their core for the future. He earned the extension after having an All Star year in 2021 and getting off to a scorching start this season. Newcomer Connor Joe has also been a main contributor during the team’s great beginning posting the highest OPS among the team of .947 while also hitting four long balls. It seems like the young Pirates team has finally figured out how to win games, but is this just a bit of luck or will it end up turning into something big?
My Prediction: The Pirates have a record of 79-83 at the end of the season and finish fourth in their division.
Has Cody Bellinger Finally Found His MVP Form?
Cody Bellinger was emerging as baseball’s next star, drawing comparisons with Mike Trout and creating debates about if he was the best player in all of baseball. His tremendous 2017 rookie season won him Rookie of the Year honors as he played in his first All Star game and participated in the Home Run Derby. He had a “down” year in 2018 compared to his rookie campaign, but he still posted a 120 OPS+ and played in every single game over the course of the season. Then, everything came together for Bellinger as he had a monster 2019 year where he hit 47 home runs, 115 RBI, a .305 batting average, and a 1.035 OPS. The Dodgers felt as though they had struck gold in Bellinger as he became one of, if not the best player in baseball. Then, slowly everyone realized that the gold that they thought the Dodgers had struck ended up being fool’s gold. In the 2020 NLCS, Bellinger popped his right shoulder out of socket during a home run celebration with teammate Kike Hernandez. He kept playing throughout the rest of the playoffs, but once the season ended he had surgery to help prevent future pain. That surgery was a downward spiral as he posted a miserable 2021 season when he had a .165 batting average, 10 home runs, a .542 OPS, and a 44 OPS+. People were blaming it on the shoulder , but in 2022 with a completely healthy shoulder Bellinger had yet another awful season. The Dodgers didn’t want to pay Bellinger the very high arbitration price, so they DFA’d him eventually making him a free agent. He signed a one year deal with the Cubs worth $17.5 million to start in center field everyday for them. He’s made the most of that opportunity as he has hit seven homers and currently has a .939 OPS.
My Prediction: Bellinger will not keep up his current pace, but he’ll finish the season batting .265 with 27 home runs.
Is Jarred Kelenic Finally the Sensation that Everyone Expected Him To Be?
In 2021 Jarred Kelenic was the 4th overall prospect in all of baseball and first for the Seattle Mariners. In the middle of that season, he was called up to the big leagues to make his MLB debut and start off his major league career, one that many people thought would be filled with accolades and awards. Once he made it to the big stage though, Kelenic greatly underperformed posting a .615 OPS in 2021 and a .534 OPS the following year. He hit just seven homers in 54 games last year as mainly a platoon player, but in 2023 something clicked for him as he has already matched his 2022 home run total while only participating in 26 games. His OPS has jumped 407 points from last year to this year, and he seems to finally be turning into the player that many scouts saw in the minor leagues. He ranks in the 95th percentile for hard hit percentage so far this year as well as being in the 86th percentile for barrel percentage which has been a main reason for his great success. Yes it’s a small sample size, but if he can finally unlock the potential that he’s shown flashes of in the past he could be force in the Mariners lineup.
My Prediction: Kelenic will slow down but will still have a productive season hitting 21 home runs and posting an .805 OPS.
Can Anyone Stop Luis Arraez?
When the Marlins traded front-end starter Pablo Lopez for second baseman Luis Arraez, they knew that they were getting an All-Star player who had great contact but they never knew that he would be THIS good. Pitchers haven’t been able to get the 2022 AL Batting Title winner out as he has a .438 batting average to commence the season while getting on base half of the time as his .500 OBP shows. Last year Arraez had a miniscule 7.1% strikeout rate in a time when even the best hitters have a 20% strikeout percentage. That rate has dropped even more in 2023 as he has only stricken out 4.9% of the time which is in the 100th percentile in the majors. There’s not any way to get him out as he has a batting average of .412 against fastballs, a .444 average against breaking balls, and a .500 average when facing offspeed pitches. He seems on track to win yet another batting title this year, and it doesn’t look like there’s much that pitchers can do to keep him off of the basepaths.
My Prediction: Arraez will win the NL Batting Title with a .340 batting average and will post a .400 OBP.
These hitters and teams are all out to achieve greatness despite poor seasons in years past as they try to overcome the hurdles that will come throughout the duration of the strenuous 162 game season. Only the best of the bunch have the ability to successfully navigate their way through a major league season filled with ups and downs as well as injuries along the way. Can these players prove the doubters wrong as they work toward as a successful year?